007 
AXPZ20 KNHC 210251
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue May 21 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica near
11N86W to 1007 mb low pres near 11N108W to 08N129W. The ITCZ 
extends from 08N129W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted S of 10N between 92W-98W and from 08N-15N between
103W-114W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure continues to stretch across the NE Pacific 
southeastward to near 20N114W. This ridge is supporting moderate
to fresh NW to N winds N of Cabo San Lucas, and light to gentle 
winds between Cabo San Lucas and the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas 
are 6 to 8 ft in NW swell north of Cabo San Lazaro, and 6 to 7 ft
in a mix of NW and SW swell south of Cabo San Lazaro. Fresh to
strong winds are noted near Puntal Eugenia, with seas to 7 ft. 
Elsewhere, including the Gulf of California, light to gentle 
winds prevail, with 3 to 4 ft seas at the entrance of the Gulf 
and 2 ft or less elsewhere. Seas of 5 to 7 ft in SW swell 
dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters. Smoke from
regional agricultural fires has spread across the offshore 
waters over southern Mexico which could reduce visibilities.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to dominate 
the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through the 
week. This will support moderate to fresh NW to N winds W of the
Baja California peninsula through Sat night. NW swell moving 
across the Baja California offshore waters will persist through 
Thu. Seas are expected to build 8 to 10 ft N of Punta Eugenia 
tonight through Wed, with seas subsiding below 8 ft on Fri. Light
concentrations of smoke due to agricultural fires is expected to
maintain hazy skies and may reduce visibility over portions of 
southern Mexico through Tue.  

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Numerous strong convection is impacting the offshore waters from
Costa Rica to Colombia, N of 02N between 77W and 86W, including 
the Gulf of Panama. These storms are bringing frequent lightning 
strikes and likely gusty winds and locally rough seas. Exercise 
caution in this area. 

South of monsoon trough around 07N, moderate to fresh winds are 
noted, including the South American offshore waters. North of 
07N, gentle to moderate winds are pulsing in the Gulf of Papagayo
but light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 6 to 8 ft 
across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters due to 
long period SW swell. Otherwise, seas range 5 to 7 ft across the 
rest of the offshore waters. Smoke from agricultural fires across
the region from Mexico may be impacting areas as far as northern
Costa Rica. 

For the forecast, moderate to strong thunderstorms will keep 
impacting waters from Costa Rica to Colombia through Wed. For 
waters south of 07N, winds will be moderate to fresh through 
Fri. North of 07N, light to gentle winds will prevail. Long 
period SW swell will continue to bring seas of 6 to 8 ft in the 
Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters through Tue. Seas 
of 5 to 7 ft will persist elsewhere through the rest of the week.
By the weekend, winds across the rest of the area will be light 
to gentle. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong high pressure of 1038 mb, located N of the forecast area 
near 40N141W, extends a ridge across the waters N of 15N and W 
of 110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower 
pressure along the ITCZ is forcing moderate to fresh NE to E 
trade winds N of 06N and W of 115W. Seas are in the 7 to 9 ft 
range within these winds in NW to N swell. Elsewhere south of 
06N, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft in merging N
and SW swell prevail W of 110W. South of the ITCZ, gentle to 
moderate winds prevail. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in mixed SW and SE 
swell.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the
weather pattern across the area N of 10N and W of 110W through 
the week. This will maintain mostly moderate to fresh trade 
winds and moderate to rough seas along the southern periphery of 
the ridge, and mainly W of 130W. Winds could pulse to strong
through Tue. Cross equatorial SW swell will continue to combine 
with northerly swell to dominate area waters through Wed before 
subsiding. Seas of 8 to 10 ft across the trade wind zone will 
begin to slowly subside by Wed, and subside below 8 ft by Fri.

$$
ERA