650 
AXPZ20 KNHC 130235
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun May 12 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 11N112W to 08N120W. 
The ITCZ continues from 08N120W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection from 06N to 14N between 
90W and 111W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail west of the Baja
California peninsula. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere 
over the open waters off Mexico as well as in the Gulf of 
California. Seas of 5-6 ft prevail over the open waters off 
Mexico, with seas of 3 ft or less over the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NW winds, and 
moderate seas or less, will prevail off the Baja California 
waters through late this week. Moderate to locally fresh gap 
winds will push through the mountain passages of Baja California 
into the Gulf of California at night. Gentle to locally moderate 
winds and moderate seas are expected elsewhere across the open 
offshore waters of Mexico through late this week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate winds are noted S of the monsoon trough, with
light to gentle winds N of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the
6-7 ft range between Colombia and the Galapagos Islands, with
seas of 5 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate southerly winds are 
forecast south of the monsoon trough through the end of the 
week. Southerly swell moving through the regional waters will 
support seas of 6-7 ft south of the Galapagos Islands through 
much of the forecast period. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds 
will prevail with moderate seas of 6 ft or less. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails over the waters N of 20N. The pressure 
gradient between the area of high pressure and low pressure 
within the monsoon trough and in the vicinity of the ITCZ is 
supporting moderate trades N of the ITCZ/monsoon trough to near 
20N and W of 115W, where seas are in the 6-8 ft range. Light to 
gentle winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, are elsewhere N of those 
features. S of the ITCZ/monsoon trough, gentle to moderate winds 
and seas of 6-8 ft prevail. 

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trade winds and 
moderate seas are expected in the trade wind zone N of the ITCZ 
to near 20N and W of 120W through the forecast period. Winds will
freshen south of the monsoon trough in the eastern part of the 
basin toward the end of the week.

$$
AL