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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu May 16 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. South of the Coast of Southwestern Mexico:
A small area of low pressure is located several hundred miles 
offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Shower and 
thunderstorm activity has become a little more concentrated near the 
low tonight, and recent satellite wind data suggests the center is 
embedded in the convection. While environmental conditions appear 
only marginally favorable due to nearby dry air, some additional 
development of this system is possible during the next day or so as 
the low drifts slowly. By this weekend, the low is forecast to 
interact or merge with another system to its east.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

2. South of the Coast of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred 
miles to the south of southern Mexico during the next day or two. 
Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter as it 
moves slowly to the west or west-northwest, remaining south of the 
coast of Mexico by the middle portion of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.


Forecaster Papin