000
AXNT20 KNHC 141816
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue May 14 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GUSTS TO GALE-FORCE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...

Frequent gusts to gale-force, and sea heights reaching 8 feet,
have been in the north central coastal waters of the Gulf of
Mexico, since the early morning hours of today. The current
forecast consists of the gusts to gale-force to be weakening,
and the wind speeds slowing down, and the conditions to be
improving, during the early hours of this afternoon. A cold front
passes through the south central coast of Louisiana, to the coast
of NE Mexico just to the south of the Deep South of Texas. A
squall line is along 25N95W 28N90W 28N83W. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 25N
northward between 85W and 92W. 

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by
the National Hurricane Center, at 
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-
Bissau near 11N15W, to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W, to
03N30W 02N40W, to 04N51W close to the coast of Brazil and French
Guiana. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 04N to
07N between 18W and 21W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 07N southward between 21W and 31W. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area that is
from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
situation with the gusts to gale-force in the north central Gulf
coastal waters.

A NW-to-SE oriented inland Mexico surface trough passes through 
21N100W, to a 1003 mb low pressure center that is near 18N95W,
through northern Guatemala into eastern Honduras. No significant 
deep convective precipitation is apparent in the satellite 
imagery.

Moderate seas are between the Florida Panhandle and 93W, leading 
into the Yucatan Channel. Slight seas are in the remainder of the 
Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh winds are in the rest of the Gulf
of Mexico, away from the cold front and the squall line and the
areas of precipitation.

Hazy conditions are in the western sections and in the SW corner
of the Gulf of Mexico. Agricultural fires are in in SE Mexico and
in other parts of Central America.

A cold front is noted from the Sabine River to the Rio Grande, 
with a stationary front extending just along the northern Gulf 
coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. To the SE of these 
features, as surface trough extends from just offshore the Florida
Big Bend to just N of Tampico, Mexico. For waters near and NW of 
the trough, several squall lines exist within a broader area of 
strong thunderstorms. These thunderstorms could bring strong to 
temporary gale force winds and rough seas. The front will linger 
across the northern Gulf over the next few days. This will cause 
heavy rain and thunderstorms over the northern basin through Wed. 
Meanwhile, moderate to fresh return flow will dominate the basin, 
pulsing to strong near the Yucatan Peninsula and Yucatan Channel. 
Winds may weaken somewhat during the upcoming weekend as the 
gradient relaxes. Meanwhile, haze due to agricultural fires in 
Mexico continues across most of the western Gulf and Bay of 
Campeche. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong to near gale-force NE winds, and rough seas, are from 11N 
to 14N between 73W and 77W. Strong NE to E winds are elsewhere in 
the areas that are between 73W and 79W from the coast of Colombia 
to Jamaica and 18N. Strong SE winds, and rough seas, are in the 
NW corner of the area from 17N northward from 84W westward. 
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are in the eastern one-third of 
the area. Fresh NE to E winds are elsewhere between 70W and 84W.
Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

The monsoon trough extends from a northern Colombia 1007 mb low
pressure center that is near 10.5N 75.5W, through 08N80W, and
beyond 09N84W, into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: numerous
strong is within 60 nm on either side of the monsoon trough
between 75W and 82W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
elsewhere from 12N southward from 75W westward.

Hazy conditions are being observed in the NW Caribbean Sea,
particularly in the Gulf of Honduras. Agricultural fires are in 
SE Mexico and in Central America.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended 
at 14/1200 UTC, are: 0.03 in San Juan in Puerto Rico; 0.02 in 
Trinidad. This information is from the Pan American Temperature 
and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

High pressure centered over the central Atlantic will support 
strong to near gale E to SE winds near the Gulf of Honduras and 
fresh to strong winds in the south-central basin through Sat. 
Moderate to rough seas are expected with the increasing winds. 
Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere through most of 
the week. Meanwhile, haze due to agricultural fires in Central 
America continues across some areas of the northwestern Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N52W, to 24N60W, to 23N71W. A
surface trough is about 210 nm to the north and to the northwest
of the cold front.Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 23N northward between 45W and the cold
front. Rough seas are from 28N northward between 48W and the cold
front.

An eastern Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 31N07W in
Africa, to 29N10W, beyond 31N28W. No significant 
deep convective precipitation is apparent in the satellite 
imagery. Moderate to rough seas are from 25N northward from 17W
eastward. 

Fresh NE winds are from 10N northward from 30W eastward.
Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean.

Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 28N northward from 75W westward. This precipitation is
connected to the broad low pressure, and the Gulf of Mexico squall
line and the nearby inland U.S.A. frontal boundaries.

A weak cold front extends from 31N53W to 23N61W. This front will 
move E of the area tonight, with high pressure building in its 
wake. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds and seas of 5 to 7 
ft are noted off the NE Florida coast due to an approaching cold 
front. As the front moves off the Florida coast Thu night, these 
fresh to strong winds will spread E. The front will stall from 
near 31N69W to the NW Bahamas Fri. Conditions around the front 
should improve by Fri, with tranquil conditions then continuing 
into the upcoming weekend. 

$$
mt/sk