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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142023
1100 PM HST Sat Sep 23 2023
The cyclone has not become significantly better organized over the
past several hours. Deep convection has been waxing and waning
near the estimated center and the system lacks distinct convective
banding features. Upper-level outflow is not very well defined at
this time. The current intensity estimate is held at 30 kt based
on Dvorak analyses from TAFB and SAB. Objective intensity
estimates from UW-CIMSS are a little higher, suggesting that the
cyclone may be a minimal tropical storm. However it is prudent to
wait for additional intensity estimates before upgrading the system.
Although the center fixes have some scatter, my best estimate of
initial motion is westward, or 280/12 kt. A mid-level ridge to the
north of the system should maintain a generally westward track for
the next couple of days. The track model consensus shows a
slightly south of westward motion in the latter part of the forecast
period, Thus the official forecast has been nudged a little south of
the previous one in 2-4 days, but not as far south as the consensus
prediction.
Over the next day or so, the depression should remain over warm
waters and in an atmospheric environment of moderate vertical wind
shear with marginally moist mid-level humidities. Therefore some
modest short-term strengthening is predicted. Around 48 hours and
beyond, southwesterly shear should increase and this, along with
some drier air, is likely to halt the intensification process. The
system is likely to gradually weaken in 2 to 4 days and, in fact,
the global models show the system degenerating into a trough within
4 days. The official forecast, like the previous one, shows the
system becoming a remnant low in 96 hours. However it is possible
that the cyclone may not last as long as that.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/0900Z 14.3N 122.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 14.6N 124.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 14.7N 126.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 14.6N 129.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 14.2N 132.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 26/1800Z 13.6N 135.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 13.0N 138.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 11.8N 144.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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