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Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 37
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023
500 AM HST Wed Aug 09 2023
Dora is on track to pass far south of Johnston Island later today,
with large surf lasting through Thursday. Compact and powerful Dora
continues to have a well-defined eye with a ring of persistant and
symmetrical convection overnight. Satellite animation shows Dora has
started to move slightly north of west over the last few hours.
Subjective Dvorak estimates of 6.0 from PHFO and 5.5 from both SAB
and JTWC, and the CIMSS objective estimates between 104 and 112 kt,
show that Dora has changed little overnight. More recent satellite
images show the system developing colder cloud tops suggesting that
Dora has gone through some minor fluctuations and remains around
115 kt, thus have held the intensity.
The initial motion with this advisory is 275/19 kt. Model guidance
remains closely clustered through the remaining time Dora will be
exploring the central Pacific. Dora continues to move to the west,
along the southern edge of a strong ridge to the north. The westward
track will become west-northwestward later today as it moves along
the southwestern edge of the ridge, and turn to the northwest
Thursday as it approaches the date line. There remains more
variability in the track and speed as the tropical cyclone enters
the western Pacific basin on Friday. The forecast track remains
closely aligned with the previous advisory, and largely follows
the TVCN model consensus.
The environmental conditions surrounding, and immediately ahead of
Dora continue to be favorable, with the system moving into slightly
warmer waters today with neglible shear. Combined with little change
in intensity over the last 24 hours, and the 06Z ECMWF SHIPS having
indicated a steady state through 11/06Z, have held the intensity
higher than the previous advisory for the first 24 hours.
Southwesterly deep layer shear will increase around hour 48, which
despite moving over even warmer waters at the time, is likely to
contribute to a weakening trend. The shear is expected to increase
as the system moves across the date line on Friday. The
forecast intensity keeps it a little higher than most of the models
in the short term, and leans towards the LGEM guidance for the
later periods.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/1500Z 11.4N 164.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 11.8N 166.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 12.6N 170.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 13.4N 174.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 14.5N 177.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 12/0000Z 15.6N 180.0E 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 16.5N 177.2E 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 17.7N 172.3E 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 14/1200Z 18.9N 167.9E 50 KT 60 MPH
$$
Forecaster M Ballard/Jelsema
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